A Sydney buyer's guide to CPI week and the November rate decision
The September quarter CPI lands on 28 October and the Reserve Bank board meets on 3 November with a fifth rate rise in play. What each date means, what the board has already signalled, what Sydney's thin auction market is saying and what a prepared buyer does in the fortnight between.
Two dates in the next fortnight will do more to set the direction of Sydney’s summer property market than anything since the September rate rise. On Wednesday 28 October the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the September quarter consumer price index. On Tuesday 3 November the Reserve Bank board meets, armed with that number and a fresh set of economic forecasts. This guide explains what each date means, what the Reserve Bank has already signalled and what a prepared buyer can usefully do while the rest of the market waits.
Where the cash rate sits now
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate to 4.60 per cent on 29 September 2026, a unanimous decision and the fourth increase this year (Reserve Bank of Australia, September 2026). The minutes of that meeting, released in October, record a board that judged waiting for more evidence could be costly after an extended period of above-target inflation, and that kept the option of increasing the cash rate further if required explicitly on the table (Reserve Bank of Australia board minutes, October 2026).
The commentary since has not softened. Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser told Citi’s Australia and New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney in October 2026 that the inflation outlook was running a little above the bank’s expectations and that the board could not allow inflation expectations to drift away from its target. Commonwealth Bank economists expect the trimmed mean to have risen 1.0 per cent over the September quarter, and noted that markets were pricing roughly a 30 per cent chance of a November rise when they published their analysis (Commonwealth Bank, October 2026).
What the CPI measures and why the trimmed mean matters
The consumer price index measures the change in prices paid by households for a fixed basket of goods and services. It is published quarterly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and the 28 October release covers July to September 2026.
The figure the Reserve Bank watches most closely is the trimmed mean, often called underlying inflation. It removes the 30 per cent of prices that moved most in either direction each quarter, which strips out one-off spikes such as fuel or electricity rebates and leaves a cleaner read on where inflation is actually settling. The Reserve Bank’s target is for inflation to sit between 2 and 3 per cent. A quarterly trimmed mean of 1.0 per cent, as Commonwealth Bank forecasts, annualises to roughly 4 per cent, which is why a strong print on 28 October would keep a fifth rate rise in play rather than settle the question.
What the auction market is already saying
Sydney’s spring selling season is the thinnest in years. Across the combined capital cities, 45.4 per cent of auctions cleared in the week to 5 October, the lowest rate since July, on volumes 38.1 per cent below the same week last year (Cotality, October 2026). In the week ending 17 October, Sydney held 845 auctions against 1,334 in the same week of 2025, and the results split sharply by dwelling type: houses cleared at 53.2 per cent while units cleared at 73.9 per cent (Property Update, October 2026).
Two readings follow. First, vendors who must sell are already meeting the market, particularly in the house segment, where the median auction price in that week was $1,665,000 (Property Update, October 2026). Second, pricing evidence is thin. When fewer comparable sales print each week, last quarter’s data goes stale quickly, and both price guides and bank valuations lag what is happening on the ground.
Three scenarios for 3 November
What a prepared buyer does in the next fortnight
Preparation beats prediction in a fortnight like this. The quiet weeks either side of a rate decision are often when the least contested buying gets done.
Four things to do before 3 November
- Have your finance retested against a cash rate 25 basis points higher than today, so a November surprise changes nothing about what you can safely offer.
- Refresh your pricing evidence with sales from October, not winter, because the auction data says the market has moved since then.
- Walk the suburbs you are targeting while open home crowds are thin.
- If you are negotiating by private treaty, remember that a vendor who has watched clearance rates all spring knows the environment as well as you do.
The buyers who use the quiet weeks well are usually the ones who settled their numbers first.
Sources
Reserve Bank of Australia, Statement by the Monetary Policy Board, 29 September 2026, and minutes of the September board meeting, released October 2026: the 4.60 per cent cash rate, the unanimous decision and the board’s stance on further increases. Investing Live, report on Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s remarks to Citi’s Australia and New Zealand Investment Conference, October 2026: the inflation outlook. Commonwealth Bank, RBA minutes show why the board decided it could not wait on inflation, October 2026: the 1.0 per cent trimmed mean forecast, the roughly 30 per cent market pricing of a November rise and the hold base case. Cotality, combined capitals auction summary, week to 5 October 2026: the 45.4 per cent clearance rate and volumes 38.1 per cent below last year. Property Update, weekend auction results for the week ending 17 October 2026: Sydney volumes, house and unit clearance rates and the median house auction price.
Common questions
When is the next RBA interest rate decision?
The Reserve Bank of Australia board announces its next cash rate decision on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 2.30pm Sydney time, accompanied by a refreshed set of RBA economic forecasts. It follows the September quarter consumer price index, which the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases on Wednesday 28 October 2026, a number the board will have in front of it when it meets.
What is the trimmed mean and why does the RBA prefer it?
The trimmed mean is a measure of underlying inflation. Each quarter it excludes the 30 per cent of prices that moved most in either direction, removing one-off spikes and subsidies that distort the headline figure. The Reserve Bank prefers it because it shows where inflation is settling rather than where it jumped, and it is the measure the board cites when judging progress toward the 2 to 3 per cent target band.
Will the RBA raise rates in November 2026?
It is an open question. Commonwealth Bank economists expect a hold but describe another rise as a clear risk, and markets were pricing roughly a 30 per cent chance of a November increase in mid-October (Commonwealth Bank, October 2026). The October board minutes kept further increases on the table if required. The September quarter CPI on 28 October is the number most likely to decide it. Foleo does not give financial, credit or tax advice.
Should Sydney buyers wait for the RBA decision before acting?
There is no single right answer, and Foleo does not give financial, credit or tax advice. What the data shows is that auction volumes are well below last year and clearance rates are soft, which means less competition now than in a typical spring (Cotality, October 2026). Buyers who have tested their finance against a higher rate can act on that evidence either side of the decision rather than trying to predict it.
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